A major new opinion poll has predicted Labour are on course to win both seats that include parts of Gedling borough at the next General Election in two weeks time.
The data shows Labour easily winning the Gedling seat, which had been occupied by Conservative candidate Tom Randall. It also suggested Labour will take Sherwood Forest from Tory MP Mark Spencer.
If the data was correct, Gedling would be taken by Labour candidate Michael Payne and Sherwood Forest would be won by Michelle Welsh.
The new poll was published on Tuesday (June 18) by Ipsos, who say they used a technique called MRP to drill down into likely local outcomes in the next election.
The Sherwood seat, which has been renamed ‘Sherwood Forest’, has only ever been held by a Labour MP once in its history — with Paddy Tipping holding the seat from 1992 to 2010.
Conservative candidate Tom Randall won the Gedling seat in 2019 after securing victory with 22,718 votes. He fought off strong competition from Labour candidate Vernon Coaker who had been MP for Gedling for 22 years after being first elected back in 1997.
In the 2019 general election, the Conservatives won all eight seats outside the city at the 2019 election – but according to these latest predictions, could be left without a single Nottinghamshire MP.
Conservative candidate Mark Spencer won the Sherwood seat in 2019 with 32,049 votes and a vote share of more than 60%.
Here are the forecasts for the two local constituencies.
Gedling
The poll predicts a ‘strong Labour’ win in Gedling
Estimated Vote Share:
- Lab: 48%
- Con: 24%
- Lib Dem: 3%
- Green: 7%
- Reform: 17%
- Other: 1%
Sherwood Forest
The poll predicts a ‘lean Labour’ win in Sherwood Forest
Estimated vote share:
- Lab: 39%
- Con: 32%
- Lib Dem: 5%
- Green: 5%
- Reform: 18%
Kelly Beaver, chief executive of Ipsos UK and Ireland said: “Labour is increasing its 2019 vote share across the country, especially in Scotland and the North East, while the Conservatives are losing votes in all regions – especially in the East and South of England, and across the Midlands.
“What is perhaps most concerning for them are signs in the data that they are particularly losing vote share in the areas where they were strongest in 2019. There is also movement for the other parties, with the Conservatives facing challenges from both sides.
